VEGA MARKET FLASH : VE 50% Feed Grade – Global Market Intelligence Update
As of February 2026, VE 50% feed grade exhibits a firming trend across key regions:
South America: USD 7.2–7.75/kg
North America: USD 7.5–9/kg
Europe: EUR 5.8–6.5/kg (≈ USD 6.85–7.65/kg)
China: Spot supply remains tight, driving prices higher. Some exporters have raised FOB quotes to USD 7.5/kg, while actual deals mainly settle at USD 7–7.2/kg. Transactions below USD 7/kg have largely ceased.
Market behavior indicates cautious optimism: smaller orders dominate the USD 7–7.2/kg range, reflecting price-testing activity. Sellers are reluctant to offload at lower levels, signaling a potentially stronger pricing trend in the near term.
Supply-Side Factors: Limited Near-Term Availability
Current production schedules: Leading manufacturers’ order books are generally full until April, limiting spot availability.
New capacity outlook: Market feedback suggests new production may come online in H2 2026, or potentially in 2027. Early output, if any, will likely be small-scale, primarily for market testing.
Conclusion: Supply-side constraints are expected to persist in H1 2026, leaving limited buffer against price volatility.
Price Trajectory: Potential Upside in the Coming Months
If major manufacturers set a FOB reference price at USD 7.5/kg in early March and prioritize long-term clients with limited allocations, international prices could trend toward USD 8/kg.
Factors influencing the upward trajectory include:
Speed of confirmed transactions
Strength of downstream inventory replenishment
Manufacturer order allocation strategies
Under constrained supply and extended order schedules, export quotes could reach USD 9–10/kg if demand aligns with the supply pattern.
Strategic Recommendations for International Buyers
Given the current market structure, buyers should consider:
Assessing Q2 coverage: If inventory covers less than 2–3 months, consider locking in partial volumes to reduce delivery and price risk.
Monitoring early March quotes: This may serve as a reference point for phase-based pricing.
Avoiding reliance on short-term spot dips: Current market dynamics are supply-driven rather than speculative.
Adopting a “staggered volume + rolling observation” strategy: Balances risk control with price flexibility.
The recent market changes reflect supply rhythm, order scheduling, and buyer expectations, rather than short-term speculation.
